Too many big hands

For general discussion of the Poker Mavens software
Post Reply
BlackKnite69
Posts: 13
Joined: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:19 pm

Too many big hands

Post by BlackKnite69 »

I was wondering if there is some setting or recalibration of the RNG.

Our site has dealt about 2.37 million hands and has seen 22 royal flushes make it to showdown. Lately, there seem to be an even bigger run of "Big hands." On a single table I have seen quads hit 5 times in 4 hours. It is a rare night to not see A,A,A,x,x or better in any given 4 hour period.

By my understanding just the royal flushes alone are about 5x the expected frequency. I can provide you with more statistics if it helps.
Kent Briggs
Site Admin
Posts: 5721
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:47 pm

Re: Too many big hands

Post by Kent Briggs »

The odds of getting a royal flush in Texas Hold'em is 30939 to 1 for hands that go to the river. Out of 2.37 million hands you would expect to get an average of 76.6 royal flushes. But that's just for you. That goes way up when you are counting royal flushes made by any player in the hand. Goes up even more if Omaha is played. So if anything you would think royals are under represented. But of course not every hand sees a river and people fold things like QTs preflop that may have made a royal if they had stayed in. So that's hard to calculate. You would really have to look at rabbit cards that only started being recorded in version 7.00.

And seeing 5 quads in 4 hours is just a moment your brain noticed while forgetting all the 4-hour periods you witnessed no quads.

https://datagenetics.com/blog/april62021/index.html
https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/
Kent Briggs - [email protected]
Briggs Softworks - http://www.briggsoft.com
Kent Briggs
Site Admin
Posts: 5721
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:47 pm

Re: Too many big hands

Post by Kent Briggs »

Also, the RNG doesn't know what poker hands are. It just shuffles 52 numbers. A different algorithm says a 1 is a deuce of clubs and a 52 is an ace of spades. The poker hands made are all determined by the fixed rules of the game. Even a lousy RNG wouldn't make too many or too few "big hands".
Kent Briggs - [email protected]
Briggs Softworks - http://www.briggsoft.com
ftpjesus
Posts: 151
Joined: Fri Dec 30, 2016 1:54 am

Re: Too many big hands

Post by ftpjesus »

Kent correct me if Im wrong but doesnt the shuffle simulator verify the RNG if we run it through the max 2M iterations? I never tried it on V7 so I dont know if it does or not but I would imagine it would verify out that withing a narrow window the RNG stastically holds up to given pattern distributions still for the cards.
Owner Operator of (TBA)
http://www.( TBA ) .com (Home Page)
http://www. (TBA) .net (Play Money)
http://www. (TBA) .eu (BTC Token tied currency and Stable Coins through Crypto quasi real money play)
Kent Briggs
Site Admin
Posts: 5721
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2008 8:47 pm

Re: Too many big hands

Post by Kent Briggs »

ftpjesus wrote: Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:23 am Kent correct me if Im wrong but doesnt the shuffle simulator verify the RNG if we run it through the max 2M iterations?
Yes, I just ran a test with 2.37 million shuffles for 9-handed Hold'em and it made 683 royal flushes, an average of 75.9 per player which is pretty close to the 76.6 number expected.

The card shuffling simulator can generate up to 6 million hands:

https://www.briggsoft.com/docs/pmavens/ ... tm#shuffle
Kent Briggs - [email protected]
Briggs Softworks - http://www.briggsoft.com
Post Reply